Yes, underdogs can always cause an upset, especially in football, where surprises happen all the time. The unpredictability of the sport makes it exciting, and even in top-tier matches, underdogs have historically pulled off shock results. There are several factors that can help underdogs pull off a surprise victory in this week’s matches:
1. Underdogs’ Strong Defensive Setup:
- If an underdog team focuses on defense, they can make it difficult for a more dominant team to break them down. Teams like Burnley, Sheffield United, or Luton Town (if they’re playing a bigger club) often set up defensively to frustrate their opponents. If they get the defensive shape right and catch the bigger team on a counter-attack or set piece, they could get a result.
2. Counter-Attacking Threat:
- Many underdogs thrive on the counter-attack. Teams that play with pace on the break, such as Nottingham Forest or Everton (when they’re at home), can exploit spaces left by a more attacking team. If the favorites overcommit in attack and leave themselves vulnerable, the underdogs could pounce.
3. Injuries or Suspensions to Key Players:
- If the favorite is missing key players due to injury or suspension (especially key attacking or defensive players), it weakens their overall team and makes them more vulnerable. This gives the underdog a chance to capitalize on any gaps in the opponent’s lineup.
4. High-Pressure Games for the Favorite:
- When a favorite team is under pressure to win — whether it’s to stay top of the table, qualify for Europe, or avoid relegation — they can sometimes play nervously. This mental aspect can cause mistakes, lapses in concentration, or even tactical errors. A well-organized underdog team can take advantage of this.
5. Home Advantage for the Underdog:
- Home games can give the underdog a big advantage, as the crowd plays a role in motivating the players. Small clubs with passionate fanbases can create an intimidating atmosphere for visiting teams. Brentford, for example, has used their home advantage to get results against much bigger teams.
6. Tactical Surprises:
- Underdogs sometimes succeed by employing surprise tactics that the favorites aren’t expecting. A team might choose an unusual formation, press high when the opponent is expecting a more passive approach, or use specific players in key roles to exploit weaknesses in the favorite’s setup.
7. Individual Moments of Brilliance:
- An underdog can always rely on an individual player to step up and create a moment of magic. Whether it’s a world-class goal from a star player, an incredible save by the goalkeeper, or a piece of skill that unlocks the defense, football is full of moments where a single player can turn a game on its head. Players like James Ward-Prowse (West Ham) or Kieffer Moore (Bournemouth) can make the difference.
8. Motivation and Desire:
- Underdog teams often have more to prove and might be more motivated to get a result against a higher-ranked opponent. This hunger to prove themselves can lead to extra effort, pressing, and a higher work rate, making it difficult for the bigger teams to play their usual game.
9. The “Big Game” Syndrome:
- Sometimes the favorites might underestimate their opponents, thinking it will be an easy win. This can lead to complacency or an overconfidence that allows the underdog to take advantage. Teams like Leeds United (during their Championship days) and Fulham have often taken down bigger clubs when they sense an opportunity.
Possible Upset Scenarios This Week:
- Relegation-Battling Teams vs. Top Teams: Teams like Everton or Wolves could surprise a top-tier club if they’re facing teams that are distracted by European competitions or dealing with injuries. Historically, teams at the bottom have been able to shock bigger clubs, especially when they are fighting for survival.
- Teams Playing on the Counter: If a team like Bournemouth or Crystal Palace faces a team that likes to dominate possession (e.g., Manchester City or Liverpool), they could exploit the spaces in behind and counter quickly to cause an upset.
- Big Teams Coming off Tough International Duty: If a team like Manchester United or Arsenal is coming off a busy European week or international break, fatigue or distractions could lead to an underdog side (like Brentford or Leicester City) sneaking a result.